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研究进展-Timing of floods in southeastern China: Seasonal properties and potential causes
发布时间: 2017-08-01  

Qiang Zhang, Xihui Gu, Vijay P. Singh, Peijun Shi, Ming Luo

 

[Qiang Zhang, Peijun Shi]. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

[Qiang Zhang, Peijun Shi]. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

[Qiang Zhang, Peijun Shi]. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

[Xihui Gu]. School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.

[Vijay P. Singh]. Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA.

[Ming Luo]. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.

 

ABSTRACTFlood hazards and flood risks in southeastern China have been causing increasing concerns due to dense population and highly-developed economy. This study attempted to address changes of seasonality, timing of peak floods and variability of occurrence date of peak floods using circular statistical methods and the modified Mann-Kendall trend detection method. The causes of peak flood changes were also investigated. Results indicated that: (1) floods were subject to more seasonality and temporal clustering when compared to precipitation extremes. However, seasonality of floods and extreme precipitation was subject to spatial heterogeneity in northern Guangdong. Similar changing patterns of peak floods and extreme precipitation were found in coastal regions; (2) significant increasing/decreasing seasonality, but no confirmed spatial patterns, were observed for peak floods and extreme precipitation. Peak floods in northern Guangdong province had decreasing variability, but had larger variability in coastal regions; (3) tropical cyclones had remarkable impacts on extreme precipitation changes in coastal regions of southeastern China, and peak floods as well. The landfalling of tropical cyclones was decreasing and concentrated during June–September; this is the major reason for earlier but enhanced seasonality of peak floods in coastal regions. This study sheds new light on flood behavior in coastal regions in a changing environment.

 

Published in Journal of Hydrology, 2017, 552, 732-744.


 
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