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研究进展- ENSO-induced flood and drought hazards and related agricultural losses across Anhui Province, China
发布时间: 2017-08-06  

Peng Sun, Qiang Zhang, Chen Cheng, Vijay P. Singh, Peijun Shi

 

[Peng Sun, Chen Cheng]. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China.

[Qiang Zhang, Peijun Shi]. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

[Qiang Zhang, Peijun Shi]. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

[Qiang Zhang, Peijun Shi]. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

[Vijay P. Singh]. Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA.

 

ABSTRACTUsing daily precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations for a period of 1961-2014, spatiotemporal features of wet spells and droughts and related impacts on agricultural production across Anhui province, China, were investigated with a linear regressive technique, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the modified Mann-Kendall trend test method. Results indicated that: (1) ENSO-induced wet spells and droughts accounted for 83% and 68% of the total wet spells and droughts and droughts were closely related to La Nina events of the same and subsequent years. Wet spells, however, were closely related to El Niño events; (2) a larger variability was found in the SPEI, showing larger flood and drought risks during spring and autumn than those during summer and winter seasons. Generally, wet spells in winter was relatively high and the drying tendency was identified in winter during recent years; (3) Relations between SPEI and SSTA were shifting during warm and cold phases of ENSO. The warm phase of ENSO tended to have larger impacts on SPEI in southern Anhui province and the cold phase of ENSO had a greater impact on the SPEI variation in northern Anhui province. Comparatively, SSTA had an increasing impact on wet spells and droughts with increasing lag time; and (4) the reduction of rice and maize production in southern Anhui province was found mainly during one year earlier to the ENSO events. The amount of reduction of maize was larger in northern Anhui province and Jianghuai region and years with maize reduction were more often in southern Anhui province. Irrigation in central Anhui province can mitigate the negative effects of wet spells and droughts.

 

Published in Natural Hazards, 2017, DOI 10.1007/s11069-017-3002-4.


 
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