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研究进展-Hydrological responses to climatic changes in the Yellow River basin, China: Climatic elasticity and streamflow prediction
发布时间: 2017-10-09  

Qiang Zhang, Jianyu Liu, Vijay P. Singh, Peijun Shi, Peng Sun

 

[Qiang Zhang, Peijun Shi]. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

[Qiang Zhang, Peijun Shi]. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

[Qiang Zhang, Peijun Shi]. Faculty of Geographical Science, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

[Jianyu Liu]. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.

[Vijay P. Singh]. Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA;

[Peng Sun]. College of Terrestrial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, 241000 Anhui, China.

 

ABSTRACT: Prediction of streamflow of the Yellow River basin was done using downscaled precipitation and temperature based on outputs of 12 GCMs under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Streamflow changes of 37 tributaries of the Yellow River basin during 2070–2099 were predicted related to different GCMs and climatic scenarios using Budyko framework. The results indicated that: (1) When compared to precipitation and temperature during 1960–1979, increasing precipitation and temperature are dominant during 2070–2099. Particularly, under RCP8.5, increase of 10% and 30% can be detected for precipitation and temperature respectively; (2) Precipitation changes have larger fractional contribution to streamflow changes than temperature changes, being the major driver for spatial and temporal patterns of water resources across the Yellow River basin; (3) 2070–2099 period will witness increased streamflow depth and decreased streamflow can be found mainly in the semi-humid regions and headwater regions of the Yellow River basin, which can be attributed to more significant increase of temperature than precipitation in these regions; (4) Distinctly different picture of streamflow changes can be observed with consideration of different outputs of GCMs which can be attributed to different outputs of GCMs under different scenarios. Even so, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, 36.8% and 71.1% of the tributaries of the Yellow River basin are dominated by increasing streamflow. The results of this study are of theoretical and practical merits in terms of management of water resources and also irrigated agriculture under influences of changing climate.

Published in Journal of Hydrology, 2017, 554, 635-645.

 


 
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